Utah Republicans still rule, but state Democrats could one day trim GOP power.
Monday, November 27, 2006(City Weekly)
Getting Closer
Utah Republicans still rule, but state Democrats could one day trim GOP power.
by Louis Godfrey
If you want to gauge the prevailing moods of Utah’s two major political parties, you need look no further than their separate election-night celebrations in downtown Salt Lake City.
The Republicans were in a somber mood at the Hilton. Up the street at the Marriott, the Democrats were energized in a way that the Republicans were decidedly not.
Locally, the election is still being dissected, but it confirms what many political insiders have been speculating—that more than 20 years of dominating Utah politics have left the Republican Party fractured and hostile, while Utah Democrats have a newfound discipline and sense of mission. No one thinks this will lead to major realignment of Utah politics, but it creates opportunities for the state’s minority party all the same.
Utah was more or less untouched by the Nov. 7 national drama. All four of the state’s federal-level officials were re-elected, all with close to 20-point margins of victory. Only two state House seats changed hands, leaving the Republican-heavy balance of power at the Legislature completely unchanged. Republicans held on to their majority on the County Council and in most of the top administrative positions.
But scratching below the surface reveals a more interesting picture. Many of the Salt Lake County legislative and administrative races were impossibly close, with candidates separated by less than 100 votes. Most surprising among them was Speaker of the House Greg Curtis’ race against Jay Seegmiller in Sandy, where at press time Curtis appears to have prevailed by a mere 46 votes. Days prior to election, Democrats seemed confident that the seat was well with in their grasp, which may or may not have prompted Curtis to take the unprecedented step of buying TV ad time.
“If gains are going to be made by the Democrats, they are going to come in Salt Lake County,” says pollster Dan Jones. “The party has improved on its get-out-the-vote efforts, and close to 70 percent of Salt Lake County residents are splitting their ballots [i.e., not voting straight Republican]. There is an opportunity brewing for Democrats to cut into the Republican majority.”
The impetus for that opportunity lies in what Utah GOP spokesman Jeff Hartley calls the “family squabbles.” Over 20 years of being the undisputed powerhouse in Utah has left the Republicans fractured and often hostile. It goes beyond just the infighting among elected officials, like the high profile showdowns between the state House and Senate. Or the continuous fights over credit unions and school vouchers, which have already cost some incumbents their seats. Also a growing disconnect between the party and its base, as was on display at the party’s convention earlier this year. Many delegates were actively displeased with their candidates and the party chairman, Joe Cannon, who recently stepped down.
“It is natural for the party in power to split into factions,” says political analyst LaVar Webb, “But it seems to be worse than usual today, and it’s not good for the long-term health of the party.”
The Democrats, conversely, are becoming more and more the model of discipline. New Chairman Wayne Holland has tempered ideological divides within the party in the name of winning elections. An influx of national party money from Howard Dean’s 50-State Strategy doesn’t hurt, either.
“This is no longer a party that is interested in wearing its losing ways as a badge of honor,” says Utah Democrats spokesman Jeff Bell. “We want to win elections. It will take time, but you already see a movement, especially in Salt Lake County.”
The favorite parlor game of late is looking toward the future statewide election. The only Democrat in a statewide race this year was Pete Ashdown, challenging the five-term Senator Orrin Hatch. Ashdown made a respectable showing at the polls, and his campaign was praised for its focus on technological issues and innovative use of new campaign tools. He energized the party’s base in a way few candidates have, but some in the party expressed concern that he didn’t connect enough with those outside the Democratic camp.
If a Democratic candidate could connect with traditionally Republican voters, the theory goes, they stand a fighting chance. The presumptive Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate when Hatch eventually retires could very well be Rep. Jim Matheson. “Jim takes a lot of heat from the [Democratic] base for his more conservative votes, but he is their most viable candidate, and if he were to run, he would probably get a pass from the base,” says political analyst Frank Pignanelli.
But while the Democratic Party may have a candidate in store that can win, a party structure that can support his campaign, and passionate base, Jones thinks that can only get them so far. “The evolving dynamics of the Utah political scene will only take Democrats so far, but it could happen,” Jones says.