Poll shows Utahns, Legislature priorities don't match up
Sunday, January 14, 2007(The Salt Lake Tribune)
Poll shows Utahns, Legislature priorities don't match up
The Salt Lake
Tribune
Utahns want lawmakers to spend a projected
$1.6 billion surplus first on public education.
A tax cut is lower on their list of priorities.
Much lower.
But
legislators are poised to give Utahns a tax cut
ranging from $100 million to $300 million
anyway - whether they want it or not.
In a poke at voters who
say they don't want a tax cut, Draper
Republican Rep. Greg Hughes plans to introduce
a "tax me more" bill creating a line on tax
forms for Utahns to write in a donation.
It's a perennial
disconnect between public opinion and
lawmakers. Polls of voter sentiment often
outline a very different set of priorities from
lawmakers' to-do list. So politicians typically
dismiss public opinion surveys, insisting they
know best what their constituents want. At the
same time, when it's convenient to an argument,
they pick and choose poll numbers that bolster
their own perspective and trash the rest.
But when polls show the
public reaching different conclusions on the
same issues - as two recent surveys from Salt
Lake City's daily newspapers have - it puts
lawmakers in a quandary and makes determining
public will more difficult.
"Polls have some
influence. They're part of the information we
use to make decisions," says Senate President
John Valentine. "But they're not the final
thing."
Divergent results
Nowhere is the divide between lawmakers
and the public - and newspaper polls - more
evident than in the highly charged debate over
public education reform and funding.
Voters seem
single-mindedly devoted to public schools. Many
legislators are just as committed to reforming
so-called "government schools" and easing
development of charter and private schools.
A Salt Lake
Tribune poll of more than 600 Utahns
conducted days before the Legislature convenes
Monday found opposition to taxpayer-subsidized
private school vouchers and tax credits
growing. This year, 57 percent of those polled
said they oppose vouchers and tax credits. Two
years ago, that number was 53 percent.
Those numbers differ
with a poll from the Deseret Morning
News. A survey of 400 Utahns two weeks ago
for that newspaper found 48 percent of those
polled support tax credits or vouchers - an
increase of 8 percent from the year before.
The tax-cut debate also
reveals a schism - and the influence of the
wording used in poll questions.
The Tribune poll
shows nearly six of 10 voters would rather have
lawmakers funnel more of the state's windfall
into classrooms rather than give a tax break.
As a second priority, more than one-third of
Utahns polled would like lawmakers to spend
more on roads and transportation.
The Tribune poll
by Virginia-based Mason-Dixon Polling &
Research seems to conflict with a similar poll
from the Morning News, which
characterized the findings as showing a clear
majority of Utahns want a tax cut. That
newspaper's pollster, Dan Jones &
Associates, asked 400 voters if they wanted a
$300 million tax cut, a $100 million tax cut or
no tax cut at all. That poll found 19 percent
of those surveyed want a $300 million tax cut.
Another 38 percent of those surveyed want a
$100 million tax cut. About 37 percent want no
tax cut. The poll offered no other spending
options.
That may
explain the difference in the two results, says
Quin Monson of Brigham Young University's
Center for the Study of Elections and
Democracy.
"Voters
always want a tax cut if they're asked. And of
course, bigger is better. And they always want
more services," says Monson. "The best
questions ask them to make choices."
Lawmakers say polls are
easy. Adopting laws and balancing budgets are
more difficult. "Lawmakers have to make
decisions based on all of the facts," says
Valentine. "Those facts include polls, talking
to constituents and supporters. Some of it
comes from your inner sense of what you believe
is right or wrong."
Skewed questions?
Other Tribune poll results show
voters breaking with lawmakers on several
issues. They back restoring funding for dental
coverage for low-income Utahns. Most would
amend the Utah Constitution to declare
accessible, affordable health care a basic
right. And three out of four want the minimum
wage raised to $7 an hour - an idea many
lawmakers are cool to.
Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker says
differences in the wording of the two
newspapers' questions could have skewed the
results. For example, the Tribune asked
if voters would grant tax credits or vouchers
to the "parents of children in private
schools." The News posed a more generic
question.
"The secret to
all polling is asking the right question," says
Ron Hrebenar, chairman of the University of
Utah's political science department. "If you're
going to get a particular answer, you want to
make sure you phrase it the way you want.
Getting an unbiased answer takes a lot more
work, and it's harder to do."
Parents for Choice in
Education spokeswoman Nancy Pomeroy, an
advocate of tax credits and vouchers, believes
the Tribune results are slanted and the
News poll is a true gauge of public
opinion.
"Did you ask
any other question?" she asked. "You should
have asked: 'Do you think parents should be
allowed to pick the school that's best for
their child?' ''
But
West Jordan retiree Lydia Manning says the
wording of the question would not have changed
her response. She opposes taxpayer subsidies
for private schools.
"Private schools are good. But if parents
choose private schools, then they need to pay
for it," Manning says.
Whatever the cause of the different numbers,
such contrary results provide political cover
for lawmakers on all sides of the tax cut and
education reform debate. Those who want to
bolster public education likely will cite one
poll, while those pushing for a tax cut can
quote the other.
"People
use whatever ammunition they have to support
what their position is," says House Minority
Leader Ralph Becker, acknowledging Democrats
are more likely than Republicans to use the
Tribune's results to make their case
during the 2007 Legislature.
walsh@sltrib.com
"Polls have some
influence. They're part of the information we
use to make decisions. But they're not the
final thing."
JOHN VALENTINE
President, Utah
Senate
"The secret to all
polling is asking the right question. . . .
Getting an unbiased answer takes a lot more
work, and it's harder to do."
RON HREBENAR
Chairman,
University of Utah political science department